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Pessimistic Optimism For The House This November

February 5, 2010

An interesting “insiders” poll from National Review Magazine today by James A. Barnes and Peter Bell on the chances of Democrat losses/Republican gains in House seats this November. The first responses are from the Democrat insiders, along with their comments. The second set of responses are from the Republican insiders, along with their comments.

It appears that the Democrats are being the most pessimistic about their chances in the 20-29 seat range while the Republicans are being optimistic about their chances of gaining in the 30-39 and 40-49 seat range. Only an all-out Republican effort, such as the ones mounted on behalf of Bob McDonnell, Chris Christie, and Scott Brown involving Republicans from all over the country, will make the Republican seat gains a reality. How will YOU become involved?

Q: How many House seats will Democrats lose or gain this November?
Democrats (95 votes)
Average: Democrats lose 24 seats
No change 0%
Lose 1-9 1%
Lose 10-19 24%
Lose 20-29 45%
Lose 30-39 18%
Lose 40-49 5% (Percent who think Democrats will lose control of House)
Lose 50+ 1% (Percent who think Democrats will lose control of House)

Volunteered: Don’t know, 5 percent.

-12. “Could be worse, but I’m hoping Massachusetts will wake folks up to what needs to be done to protect both the House and Senate.”
-15. “The Republicans are betting against the economy and people finding jobs: Not a good message.”
-20. “This is the middle ground: If the economy improves, consumer confidence is up, could be low double digits. If [there’s] a second recession, could be closer to the magic number of 40.”
-21. “Enough to be aggravating, but not truly terrifying.”
-22. “An improving economy should limit Democratic losses largely to seats that they should not have had in the first place.”
-25. “Too many dinosaurs calling the shots for the Democratic Party: The public wants new blood, but the dinosaurs won’t get off the stage.”
-27. “We wasted an entire year talking about process rather than issues that matter to voters. We will get our clock cleaned by the voters.”
-35. “Unless the economy turns around and unless Obama and the Democrats quit whining about the Republicans being obstructionists, these donkeys will lose their ass.”
-35. “Enough difficult Democratic retirements are occurring — and the prospects of meaningful reduced unemployment in 2010 are unlikely enough — that Republicans will eliminate most, if not all, of the Democrats’ majority.”
-36. “Republicans will come very close [to taking control], but the Republican National Committee’s lack of ability to conserve resources will save us 10 to 15 House seats.”

Q: How many House seats will Democrats lose or gain this November?
Republicans (96 votes)
Average: Democrats lose 33 seats
No change 0%
Lose 1-9 0%
Lose 10-19 3%
Lose 20-29 31%
Lose 30-39 42%
Lose 40-49 17% (Percent who think Democrats will lose control of House)
Lose 50+ 5% (Percent who think Democrats will lose control of House)

Volunteered: Don’t know, 2 percent.

-22. “This number could go down drastically if the Republicans continue to flounder raising money.”
-24. “The speaker gets points for corralling her party for tough votes, but they’ll pay dearly for Senate inaction.”
-25. “We would do better if we had some fresh leadership in Congress and the Republican Party.”
-27. “If Republicans make these races local versus the Obama leviathan, they’ll win. Introduce a national GOP figure like Newt [Gingrich] who will ‘rally the troops,’ and independents will get cold feet and stay home.”
-27. “Possibly more if the Republicans can offer up commonsense solutions that appeal to independents.”
-33. “Self-inflicted [GOP] disasters like Mark Foley and Duke Cunningham are the only thing that can save Democrats from a tsunami.”
-34. “Target-rich environment for Republicans.”
-35. “Democrats will barely hold on to their majority because Republicans will have come up just short of the resources needed to win it back.”
-35. “The Democrats have tattooed themselves with the ‘Big Spenders’ label yet again. The voters will vote, ‘Enough, already!’ ”
-37. “Which won’t be as much fun as having a majority, but vastly more entertaining. Pelosi will not survive as speaker.”
-42. “The election may not be today, but candidate recruitment is. The GOP will have better candidates riding an epic wave, and uninspired Democrats will stay home.”

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